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杠杆力

“给我一个支点,我就能撬起地球”——The Power of Lever

 
 
 

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【首发译文】储蓄过剩去哪儿了?  

2013-12-05 11:25:32|  分类: Leverer之首译 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

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Where did the saving glut go?
储蓄过剩去哪儿了?
 Leverer译  From: Insead.com     By: Antonio Fatas     December 4, 2013    

发达经济体投资下降的原因是存在争议的。

   我之前写过关于发生在发达经济体中的投资不足,同时我们目睹了如下图所示的全球储蓄过剩。尤其,我们会看到2002-2007扩张区间的投资率要比之前两个扩张区间都要低。

 【Leverer译】储蓄过剩去哪儿了? - 杠杆使者Leverer - 杠杆力

 

如果有人利用储蓄(供)和投资(需)曲线想到一个简单的需/供结构,这意味着这些国家的投资曲线必须在同一时间向内移,而世界利率将会下降。

但是,新兴经济体又如何呢?新兴经济体的投资在过去的十年中没有出现下降。相反,2000年之后其增速极快。

 【Leverer译】储蓄过剩去哪儿了? - 杠杆使者Leverer - 杠杆力

 

人们更加期待的是作为对全球储蓄过剩的反应。额外的储蓄必须有什么地方可去(世界上的储蓄必须等于投资)。随着利率的下降,新兴经济体参与更多的投资(无论这是否是一个简单地沿着向下倾斜的投资曲线移动,或者是对于任何给定利率水平的投资机会转移,都是这个简单的分析无法表述的)。

我们也可以从整体上看看这个世界。

 【Leverer译】储蓄过剩去哪儿了? - 杠杆使者Leverer - 杠杆力

 

2000年开始,我们看到了一个新兴经济体驱动着更高投资的趋势。

在平衡状态,储蓄和投资都必须移动同样的数量(从全球水平来说),那么我们怎么才能知道这是储蓄过剩而不是投资机会的增长呢?这些年利率的下降这一事实意味着这些变化是由储蓄曲线向外移动所左右的(如果是投资的移动,那我们就会看到利率的增长)。由此产生的较低利率会导致新兴经济体更高的投资,正如预期,但他们没有促进任何在发达经济体的额外投资信号,而在这些国家投资机会已经出现了下降。无论这是否是一个组织弱化的信号——影响发达经济体保持以同样的速度进行创新的能力或者是一个纯粹的反映,可能是周期性的,而其因素依旧是一个悬而未决的问题。

P.S. 所有用于制作以上图片的数据均来自于国际货币基金组织的世界经济展望数据库。单个国家的数据利用购买力平价GDP权重进行了合计(使用市场汇率GDP权重得出了非常相似的理解)


英文原文:

The reasons for falling investment in advanced economies are debatable.

       I have written before about the investment dearth that took place in advanced economies at the same time that we witnessed a global saving glut as illustrated in the chart below. In particular, the 2002-2007 expansion saw lower investment rates than any of the previous two expansions.
【Leverer译】储蓄过剩去哪儿了? - 杠杆使者Leverer - 杠杆力
 
       If one thinks about a simple demand/supply framework using the saving (supply) and investment (demand) curves, this means that the investment curve for these countries must have shifted inwards at the same time that world interest rates were coming down.
       But what about emerging markets? Emerging markets' investment did not fall during the last 10 years. On the contrary it accelerated very quickly after 2000.
【Leverer译】储蓄过剩去哪儿了? - 杠杆使者Leverer - 杠杆力
 
       This is more what one would expect as a reaction to the global saving glut. The additional saving must be going somewhere (saving must equal investment in the world). As interest rates are coming down, emerging markets engage in more investment (whether this is simply a move along a downward-slopping investment curve or a shift of the investment opportunities for any given level of interest rates is impossible to tell from this simple analysis).
       We can also look at the world as whole.
【Leverer译】储蓄过剩去哪儿了? - 杠杆使者Leverer - 杠杆力
 
       Starting in the year 2000 we see a trend towards higher investment driven by emerging markets. 
       In equilibrium, both saving and investment have to move by the same amount (at the global level) so how do we know that this is a saving glut and not an increase in investment opportunities? The fact that interest rates were declining during these years means that these changes were dominated by an outward shift in the saving curve (if it had been investment shifting we would have seen interest rates increased). The resulting lower interest rates led to higher investment in emerging markets, as expected, but they did not foster any additional investment in advanced economies signaling that there has been a decline in investment opportunities in these countries. Whether this is a sign of a structural weakness that affects the ability of advanced economies to keep innovating at the same rate or purely a reflection of other, possibly cyclical, factors remains an open question.
       
       P.S. All data used to produce the charts above comes from the IMF World Economic Outlook. Individual country data has been aggregated using PPP GDP weights (using market exchange rates GDP weights provides very similar insights).

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